UPDATE #2: Murphy's lead went from 168 down to 86 this afternoon, but that is actually very good news for the Democrat -- as these results now include the much-feared results from Tedisco stronghold Saratoga county... Use this link to check the official numbers...
The justifiably celebrated Nate Silver of 538.com predicts that Scott Murphy will win the hotly-contested race for New York 20th Congressional Distict handily, by "500-600" votes.
(How cool would it be if Murphy won by 538 votes exactly?)
Silver, for those who just bought their first computer, is the baseball statistics genius who very precisely predicted the outcomes of both the 2008 Democratic primaries and the general election. If anything, he says, he may be underestimating Murphy's margin, given Jimmy Disco's Colemanesque strategery:
More teabag tax day updates below the fold...
Tedisco, somewhat mirroring the strategy of the Norm Coleman campaign, has started to challenge a ridiculously high fraction of ballots. These challenges may already be depressing Murphy's numbers, and therefore our estimate of his eventual margin of victory may be low. On the other hand, if Tedisco continues to escalate the frequency of his challenges in the interim, he may be able to hedge against Murphy's reported gains or possibly even to take a paper lead.
»»» The Manhattan Young Democrats blog notes how the NY-20 race is getting "dirtier by the day," summarizing the GOP gameplan as
"convincing the courts to only count those votes cast in their favor."
»»»The rightward-leaning New Ledger complains that only 20% of military ballots were "returned in time to count." Now, I don't know anyone who wants to see legitimate military voters disenfranchised. But considering that (1) the deadline was already extended, and (2) the military and the GOP are supposedly all about following rules, at what point does one say, "OK, you had your chance"? No doubt the Tedisco camp would argue for keeping this window open into 2010, if that was the only way they could prevail...
»»» While Tedisco is breathing heavily about protecting military votes, in reality these may not help him nearly so much as his team hopes: Two counties so far have reviewed their military ballots, and these netted the GOP candidate only a total of +9 votes. Meanwhile, Murphy picked up over 60 absentee votes in Columbia County alone yesterday (this despite many like Dem votes being set aside due to Tedisco challenges; and Columbia is barely halfway done).
»»» Though she's in my view a little late to the controversy (getting involved only once her own vote was challenged), Senator Kirsten Gillibrand issued a statement that is right on the facts and consistent with the Murphy campaign's message:
"The Republican's challenge is frivolous and without merit. This is part of their larger attempt to disenfranchise legal Democratic voters and delay the inevitable Democratic victory in the 20th. Every day that the national Republicans waste with their dishonest stalling tactics is another day Upstate New Yorkers are deprived their Member of Congress.
»»» Also, please check out my own report posted at both Kos and TAP about Judge Brands, whose court was hand-picked by Tedisco to hear his whining challenges.
»»»Jimmy Vielkind of Politicker NY continues to be very much on the ball with his reports; it’s worth checking the site throughout the day.
»»» And as ever, use the Act Blue link to donate to Murphy's legal defense of people's right to vote.
More updates as they come in today... Please post your own below.