APOSTASY: Does Pennsylvania matter?

Like most Kossacks, I will be watching the results of today's primary with keen interest, checking in to Kos and The Field in particular for the latest results and analysis.

But in truth, and no offense to Keystone State voters, I have to ask -- How does Pennsylvania really matter?

Consider, for example, this article from the McClatchy newspaper chain:

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/...

Heading into Pennsylvania, Obama has 1,648 delegates, needing 377 more to clinch the nomination. Clinton has 1,509, needing 516 more, according to the Associated Press.

After Tuesday, there are just eight primaries — Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota — with 354 delegates at stake. [...]

Given the way that Democrats allocate delegates, it would take landslides in every state for Clinton to have a chance of gaining significantly on Obama in the delegate count. Even then, it's almost impossible that she could overtake him.

It's also highly unlikely she'll overtake him in the popular vote.

The popular vote is a key indicator for superdelegates who either don't want to buck the popular choice — or see it as a sign of general election strength.

With more than 25 million votes already cast, Obama leads Clinton by an estimated 13.7 million to 12.9 million, a margin of more than 800,000.

So even if Clinton managed to win Pennsylvania by the same 10-point margin she won in Ohio, more than current polls suggest, she'd emerge with only a 200,000-vote margin.

That would leave her still trailing by more than 600,000 votes — with no big states left.

Only one outcome -- an Obama win -- would make any definitive, non-spinnable change in this interminable contest, because it would definitively end Clinton's campaign. Perhaps a very narrow Clinton victory would have the same salutary effect; but the irrational determination of the Hillary camp would probably mean six more weeks of gratuitous Democratic Nomination Limbo.

Any other result, even a narrow one, will continue the existing situation: Clinton continues her campaign despite the mathemat- ical impossibility of her catching Obama in either the popular vote or delegate count.

Even a whopping 10-15% victory by Clinton wouldn't change that reality, especially since Obama can expect to erase any gains by Clinton in subsequent primaries such as North Carolina, where he is up by 20 or more points.

After tonight, in fact, even a solid Clinton win will leave her in a worse position -- because there will be far fewer delegates left to select, meaning she would have to win the remaining contests by improbable margins of 65% of so.

Basically, we have a situation where one candidate has effectively been eliminated, but nothing seems to deter her from continuing on the off-chance that something terrible  happens to her opponent.

Clinton supporters will continue to argue we have to let the rest of the voters speak, but that will conveniently ignore the reality of national primaries -- at some point, someone wins, and the remaining states' contests become a formality.. just as they did in both of Bill Clinton's runs.

I'm arguing that we've already reached that point of formality already -- only the Clinton campaign and the media just won't unclamp their teeth from the bit.