After all this hoopla, Texas spin may decide the race

As an Obama supporter, I am naturally hoping for a clear-cut win in Texas and a narrow win in Ohio. As a realist, I think there is a chance Clinton could eke out narrow popular vote wins in both states.

It is imperative for the Obama campaign to be on top of the media tonight in every respects, but especially in regard to the Texas results -- which may be quite complicated to interpret.

In particular, Obama's campaign must be prepared to urge the media to focus on the combined Texas delegate results from both the primary and caucus, even as Clinton's people can be expected to try to focus attention solely on the Texas primary popular vote if it favors them.

This is ultra-important because if Clinton wins Ohio and narrowly wins the Texas primary vote, she will announce that she "won both states," even if she loses the Texas caucus and overall contest for delegates in the Lone Star state.

Let's review:

Pollster.com has done an analysis of various polls and their assumptions of voter turnout, and is predicting a 51% - 49% Clinton popular vote victory. But such a number might well mean Obama is even or wins the primary delegate contest, and could also point to an Obama caucus win.

As is well-known now (at least among Kossacks), Texas has a byzantine delegate apportionment scheme which appears to favor Obama -- and which the Clinton campaign failed to understand until very late in the game. This means that a 2% Clinton popular vote win in the Texas primary does not necessarily mean she would win more of the 2/3 of delegates assigned via the primary.

And given that Obama has shown a much greater ability to get out the caucus vote in other states, a margin just 2% in the Texas primary could well mean that Obama would win the Texas caucus later in the day by a comfortable (5-10%) margin, walking away with a solid edge in the caucus delegate apportionment.

In short: Let's say, pessimistically that Pollster.com is right. That could nevertheless mean Obama comes out of Texas with a 10-15 delegate edge. And he could then honestly state that he had won Texas.

Clinton would counter (per her usual derision of caucuses, and her typically selective indignance at odd delegate-assigning schemes) that the popular vote in the primary should be the only figure that matters, and would argue that she won the State, despite losing the all-important delegate race in Texas.

I hope Obama wins big in Texas, and also takes Ohio, so that all this speculation can end. But I also sincerely hope his campaign is also prepared for the above scenario, because if Clinton's narrative is allowed to prevail, this primary will continue -- to the detriment of Democratic coffers and hopes for November.