Daily Kos

How far is Obama ahead? A comparison of MSM delegate counts

Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 03:23:46 PM PDT

I've just cruised the websites of six "major" news organizations, and then tabulated their various delegate counts as of today (25 February 2008, 6 pm EST). ... This table follows after the jump, but the average of these counts shows Obama ahead by a little under 100 (pledged and unpledged) delegates:

Obama: 1,361
Clinton: 1,268

Associated Press

* 1,370 Obama * 1,274 Clinton

ABC News

* 1,370 Obama * 1,272 Clinton

CBS News

* 1,365 Obama * 1,265 Clinton

CNN

* 1,327 Obama * 1,255 Clinton

FOX News

* 1,362 Obama * 1,266.5 Clinton

Washington Post

* 1,370 Obama * 1,275 Clinton

NOTES:

  1. The news organizations above include all state results combined with estimates of "superdelegates." I have thus omitted outliers MSNBC, whose figures don't include any superdelegate estimates (favoring Obama), and The New York Times, whose figures don't include delegates earned in caucuses (favoring Clinton).
  1. Many news organizations such as the L.A. Times and USA Today use the Associated Press count. Rather than include these identical tallies several times, I have averaged in the A.P. count just once. However, arguably the A.P. count could be weighted higher since so many publications deem it reliable.
  1. Obama's counts range from 1,325 to 1,370, with the high figure (1,370 also being the median, appearing in three of six counts. Clinton's counts fall in a much narrower range, from 1,255 up to 1,275, with no figure appearing twice in her projections. This suggests that Obama is currently ahead by no less than 50 and no more than 115 delegates, all inclusive.

Make of these figures what you will... Meanwhile, the trend in superdelegates appears to be Obama rapidly closing the gap with Clinton. Barring a major Obama gaffe and/or surprise landslide victories by Clinton in Ohio and Texas, I would tend to agree with the emerging consensus that there are few realistic ways that Clinton can make up this 90-100 delegate gap.

Tags: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, delegate counts, CNN, MSNBC, New York Times, Associated Press, ABC News, CBS News, Fox News, USA Today, L.A. Times (all tags) :: Previous Tag Versions

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